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PANEL SURVEY DATA AND BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS
GUC campus Berlin
Am Borsigturm 162, 13507 Berlin
http://www.guc-berlin.de/en/about_guc_berlin/campus_info_and_location.aspx
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Tuesday,17 June 2014
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12.00 – 1pm
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Registration
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1 – 2pm
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LUNCH BREAK
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Session 1: Methods, chair: Maritta Paloviita
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2 – 2.30 pm
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Christian Seiler, ifo Munich and Klaus Wohlrabe, ifo Munich: Sample Size Determination in Business Tendency Surveys
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2.30 –3 pm
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Marwa El-Agroudy, GUC: Temporal and spatial disaggregation
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3 – 3.30 pm
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Maritta Paloviita and Sami Oinonen: Analysis of changing panel composition in the ECB SPF survey.
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3.30 – 4 pm
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Tea break
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Session 2: Forecasting, chair: Konstantin Kholodilin
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4- 4.30 pm
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Christian Mueller, GUC: Genuine ex-ante forecasting: Further results of an ongoing experiment
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4.30 – 5pm
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Konstantin A. Kholodilin, DIW, and Boriss Siliverstovs, ETH Zurich: Business confidence and forecasting of housing prices and rents in large German cities
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5 – 5.30 pm
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Tea break
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7 – 10 pm
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Workshop dinner
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“CANA RESTAURANTA”
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Neue Roßstraße 11/12
10179 Berlin-Mitte
Near Underground station: Märkisches Museum (U2)
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End of day 1
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Day 2
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Wednesday, 18 June 2014
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Session 3: Indicators, chair: Michael Graff
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9 – 9.30 am
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Klaus Abberger, Michael Graff, Boriss Siliverstovs and Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF ETH Zurich: The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014: A composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle
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9.30 – 10 pm
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Michael Graff, Matthias Bannert, Richard Etter and Martin Wörter, KOF ETH Zurich: Is ‘Normal’ Capacity Utilisation a Technology Driven Variable? Analyses with Macro and Micro Data from Business Tendency Surveys
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10 – 10.30am
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Tea break
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Session 3: Research proposal drafting, chair: Christian Mueller
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10.30 – 11 am
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Formal requirements and timing: DAAD funds, SNF and DFG
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11 – 11.30 am
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Topical foci
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11.30 – 12 am
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Workload distribution
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12 – 12.15 am
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Closing
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12.15 – 2 pm
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LUNCH BREAK
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End of day 2
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End of workshop
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